Fifa International · resolved market
United States to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be6aacdefbfeb82b519a202fef21ea570357f1e2673be2e3ee188abb09eac17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 12,240$5,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,564.51 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 48c | 11,564$5,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,554.32 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 52c | 10,752$5,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,136.28 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 51c | 4,190$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.1 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed No | 52c | 2,806$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.88 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 53c | 2,382$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.71 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…5699backed Yes | 47c | 1,873$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…473dbacked No | 52c | 1,820$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.6 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 52c | 1,727$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.76 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 52c | 1,272$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.37 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 54c | 559.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.05 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 48c | 515.51$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.45 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 60c | 445.72$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.55 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…e761backed Yes | 48c | 412.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461e…5ce2backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…e6aebacked No | 52c | 385.71$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.14 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 53c | 382.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 72c | 334$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…6becbacked No | 57c | 329$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.47 | 245 | 40.4%99 W · 146 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 48c | 319$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 54c | 314.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.47 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 46c | 303.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.55 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 55c | 245$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 55c | 245$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 55c | 245$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 241.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 47c | 240.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 8c | 230$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.6 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 228.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 48c | 174.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 57c | 156$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 52c | 90.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 57c | 87.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 451 | 45%203 W · 248 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed No | 53c | 80.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +14.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…3918backed Yes | 47c | 63.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 61.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Yes | 24c | 58.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 48.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 56c | 48.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 35.6%144 W · 260 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…bad3backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f09…9d7fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 33.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 52c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 481 | 54.9%264 W · 217 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States to win the second half?this page
- Türkiye to win the second half?No won
- Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.