TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof 1win, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$424,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$508,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed 1win52c140,918$73,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,448.961,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed OG50c68,600$34,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,417.1571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked 1win37c39,000$14,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,328.1417948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG56c11,617$6,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,142.281,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OG55c10,029$5,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,53789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed OG57c10,020$5,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.7268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked OG41c10,000$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,902.3623435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed OG63c9,091$5,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.1221155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed OG50c7,949$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.578648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked OG72c7,649$5,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.311,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked OG47c7,497$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,967.5389741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed OG59c7,184$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.3316553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed OG66c6,611$4,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.821,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked 1win67c6,400$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.9980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked OG33c6,360$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,261.1825446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed OG33c4,600$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,081.9910537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed 1win66c4,524$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9230357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked 1win29c4,021$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.8550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked 1win27c3,883$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06312858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed 1win69c3,816$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.8118351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed OG58c3,586$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked OG55c3,435$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.171,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked OG37c2,703$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.2419456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG34c2,649$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.491,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed OG65c2,628$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.3615051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed 1win70c2,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.9912350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed OG75c2,328$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.9453758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed OG40c2,114$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.2418660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed OG28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed OG32c1,959$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.0334442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked OG60c1,926$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.2389238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked 1win5c1,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5357…3a0dbacked OG34c1,630$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0752035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed OG31c1,575$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.6620642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed OG36c1,526$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.6437745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed OG33c1,500$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00529546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed OG34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99025935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed OG33c1,487$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.228347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked OG34c1,446$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.1750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed OG71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4530356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed 1win74c1,400$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03614258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG47c1,397$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.042,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed 1win66c1,395$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.714136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab4a…823abacked OG28c1,393$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.992462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed OG34c1,345$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.5977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked OG63c1,322$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.9728251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed OG50c1,311$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.0650353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed 1win27c1,200$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9832445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed 1win38c1,181$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.5129352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 1win16c1,172$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.91,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed OG77c1,078$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9345352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed OG54c1,036$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.2172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b7…d4f5backed 1win21c1,017$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2153834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed OG61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39018152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked 1win36c999.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3606744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed 1win65c999.99$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65015050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked OG28c999.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked 1win68c988.1$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked OG68c978.15$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5489938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked OG59c916.5$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.528145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win45c888.62$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.882,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed 1win66c866.19$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.6931547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed 1win68c800$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed 1win65c800$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52014943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed OG39c750$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.514751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…438fbacked OG71c706.06$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.062185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4652…6343backed 1win3c700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4905…1683backed OG67c657$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.814843.8%21 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked 1win59c644.95$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.3517550.9%89 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked OG34c629.2$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.6731055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2172…5cdabacked 1win64c625$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed 1win57c594.62$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3404858.3%28 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed OG64c573.15$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1513553.3%72 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed 1win64c553.99$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed OG37c552.92$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.3429240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed OG58c536.94$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9442660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d4d…2008backed 1win53c532.95$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.539054.4%49 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked 1win66c499.99$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked 1win68c493.08$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.1526843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed OG32c473.23$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.865647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked 1win61c470.48$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28715957.9%92 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked OG60c420.63$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2514655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked 1win48c420$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.859254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed OG50c416.6$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5447748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed 1win73c412.22$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9229243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed OG27c412.22$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.9212740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked OG77c408.75$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0114641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed OG34c400$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.4537655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed OG62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15223736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked OG32c399.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27232549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed OG77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6134051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aac…4b51backed OG52c386.33$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.54875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed OG73c382.44$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.266844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked OG33c362.15$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824a…3952backed 1win45c361.99$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed OG69c355.95$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3212246.7%57 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked 1win17c350$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.512217.2%21 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 1win31c349.21$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed OG61c305$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.819458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked OG35c299.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19524942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.