NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce2db82a08fbe32173caaca4063b558e8d94ffc2ac548621a532991db703e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Timberwolves, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 57c | 2,045$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.52 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 46c | 1,307$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Hawks | 43c | 1,082$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.85 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Timberwolves | 58c | 1,014$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Timberwolves | 57c | 983.52$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.61 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 42c | 905.26$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 46c | 695.87$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87b…3f57backed Hawks | 77c | 299$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 272.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves | 57c | 261$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…2731backed Timberwolves | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Timberwolves | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Timberwolves | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Timberwolves | 54c | 97.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Timberwolves | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 57c | 77.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hawks | 49c | 70.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Timberwolves | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 54c | 47.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf4…348dbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…1df6backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Hawks won
- Timberwolves vs. HawksHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.