NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf28e57abd99f555ef36cc637eb6a2242f1031ec24b364ba3e29dd5026c808f67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Timberwolves, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1748…a816backed Timberwolves | 50c | 6,180$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…1e0bbacked Hawks | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…9e5ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 3,073$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves | 52c | 2,408$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.19 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 1,962$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Hawks | 51c | 1,330$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.7 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Hawks | 48c | 1,321$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,251$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.1 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,197$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Hawks | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hawks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Hawks | 52c | 925.96$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.46 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 49c | 742.44$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.8 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 737.5$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Hawks | 51c | 681.38$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.88 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 591$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Hawks | 49c | 446.9$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.39 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Timberwolves | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 399.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 306.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Hawks | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Hawks | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Hawks | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Timberwolves | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 49c | 177.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Hawks | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Hawks | 49c | 148$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Hawks | 49c | 147$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Timberwolves | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Hawks | 51c | 111.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Hawks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 50c | 91.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 50c | 90.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 39c | 80.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Hawks | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Hawks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Timberwolves | 50c | 57.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 49.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Timberwolves | 49c | 44.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…9c76backed Hawks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Hawks | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Hawks won
- Timberwolves vs. HawksHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.