NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x394c0ba1567594ddb6ffebb56e64b687feb58d3d7c1d8b18a2afc66ec69fbacb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 47c | 51,818$24,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,294.9 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 33,694$17,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,916.08 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 54c | 23,486$12,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,902.11 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 16,203$7,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,559.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 50c | 8,909$4,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,486.32 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 7,175$3,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,377.98 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 3,361$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.47 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 3,113$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 2,755$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 55c | 2,060$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Over | 43c | 1,794$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.42 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Under | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 47c | 1,500$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 45c | 1,372$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.39 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.71 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…4e38backed Under | 63c | 817.78$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Over | 43c | 791$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 641.01$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 583$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.18 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Over | 46c | 427.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.78 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 54c | 391.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Over | 50c | 377$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 50c | 375$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 46c | 280$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 46c | 270.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 57c | 268$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 230.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Under | 57c | 228$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 223.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 45c | 160.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Under | 55c | 151$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 130.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 48c | 120.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Over | 54c | 109.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 49c | 109.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 48c | 86.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 55c | 60.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…1a46backed Over | 46c | 41.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…6c7ebacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Hawks won
- Timberwolves vs. HawksHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.