NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a216f1659f3189628ff149fa4c9d9f35fc5fcc41c309ff26d8bfe1c0f752c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 53c | 22,211$11,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,490.56 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 9,728$4,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,623.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 53c | 5,624$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.74 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 3,037$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.54 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 2,895$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 44c | 2,297$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.68 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 2,258$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.85 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 1,632$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.67 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,022$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 920$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 900$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 611.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 57c | 540.35$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.35 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 457.13$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.85 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Over | 45c | 408$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 271.28$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 213$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…ea50backed Under | 51c | 199.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 191.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 53c | 139.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 78.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…e70ebacked Under | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 49.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Hawks won
- Timberwolves vs. HawksHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.