NBA · resolved market
Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d14c58999dda5c2bfec61b564385ec7730d41caf601f2610c8ef4378c5fb85d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,791$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.97 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 47c | 1,750$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.5 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.92 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 45c | 991.9$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.55 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed Yes | 54c | 279.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 46c | 115.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…5f1fbacked No | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 54c | 40.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc404…f3e4backed No | 46c | 21.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Brice Sensabaugh: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. SunsSuns won
- Jazz vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Jazz vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Kyle Filipowski: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Spread: Suns (-16.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-17.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.