Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d9fb89264eae69826e2280f1c6e4a8a6acbbfa3c8d0c58e80c9f9e18f2fbf28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 855.98$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 5c | 672.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 45c | 317$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 309.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 306.24$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 230.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 79c | 143.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 122.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 102.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 38c | 94.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 93.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 80.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 67.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 59.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 47.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 47c | 44.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 43.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 40.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 37c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 27.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 24.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…f1f8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 64c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.