TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fajing Sunof Alex Bolt, Fajing Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbba9…f183backed Alex Bolt8c22,266$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.093522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d25…e306backed Alex Bolt0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fajing Sun72c9,246$6,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,577.048,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fajing Sun57c6,492$3,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Alex Bolt52c4,273$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.1454345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Fajing Sun77c4,258$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.94,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alex Bolt56c2,123$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.011,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Alex Bolt55c1,743$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.567040%28 W · 42 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Alex Bolt58c1,734$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00062061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Fajing Sun25c1,734$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.5827431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Alex Bolt55c1,731$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.8579855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7927…33cfbacked Fajing Sun47c1,675$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.75757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Fajing Sun45c1,423$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.551,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Fajing Sun61c1,367$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.715356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Alex Bolt62c1,362$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.7658639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Fajing Sun40c1,291$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.8830530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Fajing Sun33c1,211$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.841,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Fajing Sun50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7454…57f2backed Alex Bolt54c1,183$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.9120949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Alex Bolt62c1,181$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.4817359.5%103 W · 70 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed Fajing Sun48c1,133$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.289560%57 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Fajing Sun36c1,058$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.144,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed Fajing Sun49c1,024$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.1726451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Fajing Sun52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48031736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec6…0e3abacked Fajing Sun48c998.93$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.646361.9%39 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Bolt54c964.25$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.49,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Fajing Sun44c909.09$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.0941251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Alex Bolt55c898.36$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.7988935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Alex Bolt54c892.63$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.55,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Fajing Sun44c854.05$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.274,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Fajing Sun52c839.77$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.7741645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Alex Bolt53c799.93$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.961,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa164…7d86backed Fajing Sun30c704.66$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.0422248.2%107 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Fajing Sun44c666.85$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.057,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Alex Bolt54c664.73$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36046435.3%164 W · 300 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Fajing Sun59c651.61$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.612,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Alex Bolt55c636.36$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013147.3%62 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Alex Bolt44c629.11$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.324,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked Alex Bolt56c608.93$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417560%45 W · 30 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Alex Bolt52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26041060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e81…a0e9backed Fajing Sun49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.063542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ae…3a05backed Alex Bolt70c486.84$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.794344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Fajing Sun51c486.27$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2798240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5baf…3e56backed Alex Bolt55c454.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25065840.9%269 W · 389 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Fajing Sun44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.551,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Fajing Sun51c442.24$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6247956.6%271 W · 208 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac87…43acbacked Alex Bolt49c433.55$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Alex Bolt53c416.83$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb943…375bbacked Fajing Sun46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21617649.4%87 W · 89 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcae…fe45backed Alex Bolt51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043762.2%23 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Alex Bolt57c394.67$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.965971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Alex Bolt50c390.24$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1315938.4%61 W · 98 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd3…fed4backed Alex Bolt55c389.96$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.367968.4%54 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Fajing Sun52c380.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9945957.5%264 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked Fajing Sun53c378.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3721641.7%90 W · 126 L-0.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Alex Bolt56c377.42$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21042332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bdd…8fd9backed Alex Bolt54c368.44$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.965145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Alex Bolt56c363.9$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4928348.4%137 W · 146 L+1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Alex Bolt55c356.96$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19658931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Alex Bolt62c354.84$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22012754.3%69 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b35…bfa7backed Fajing Sun73c342.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9928265.6%185 W · 97 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Fajing Sun30c334.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.58235.4%29 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef0…d45bbacked Alex Bolt8c331.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6921259.4%126 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alex Bolt53c331.35$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.54,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Alex Bolt42c324.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6711747%55 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Alex Bolt52c320$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.436440.9%149 W · 215 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Fajing Sun44c319.32$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.821,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alex Bolt17c298.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.758,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843c…126cbacked Fajing Sun43c298.08$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.351662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fajing Sun58c295.3$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.732,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Alex Bolt55c276.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c7…5cecbacked Fajing Sun49c246.34$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1117138.6%66 W · 105 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Fajing Sun48c243.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6650958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Fajing Sun47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7752341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10d…e679backed Fajing Sun48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333842.1%16 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Fajing Sun47c206.63$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6796035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b00…9a5abacked Fajing Sun49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Alex Bolt34c200.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.041,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fajing Sun47c189.18$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.273,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Alex Bolt55c177$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.551,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…41c1backed Alex Bolt57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Fajing Sun49c171.59$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7440548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Alex Bolt56c161.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.916258.6%95 W · 67 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e65…694fbacked Alex Bolt56c157.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.477549.3%37 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe891…4b25backed Fajing Sun44c157.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0116349.7%81 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Fajing Sun44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed Alex Bolt53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.539842.2%168 W · 230 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x061a…89dcbacked Alex Bolt38c147.37$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Alex Bolt50c143.38$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5374346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f9…c741backed Fajing Sun39c129.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.134721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf516…4c5abacked Fajing Sun73c123.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.292352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Alex Bolt45c115$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0565346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Fajing Sun47c112.91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.841,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Fajing Sun49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.111852.5%62 W · 56 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Fajing Sun44c107.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1625245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afa…e227backed Fajing Sun56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1415758.6%92 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Alex Bolt19c106.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8885624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb92f…58c4backed Fajing Sun47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3830653.3%163 W · 143 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Alex Bolt53c105.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1896755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Fajing Sun51c104.61$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2732853%174 W · 154 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.