Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dbaa1389924439e1dee87a5085efbf364529a405d262832a17341c034ef7fc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 38c | 1,002$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.59 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 6c | 548.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 6c | 512.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 30c | 499.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.94 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 407.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 403$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 7c | 371.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 338.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 320.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 7c | 284.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 281.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 270.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 16c | 257.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 46c | 239.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 14c | 238.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 228.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 220.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 220.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 210.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 66c | 199.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 194.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 28c | 191.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 64c | 189.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 35c | 164.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 154.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 137.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 129.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 128.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 126.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 68c | 125.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…9288backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 59c | 108.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 100.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 68c | 97.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 18c | 96.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 91.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 35c | 88.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 81.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 77.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 65c | 76.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 19c | 69.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 68.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 57.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 55.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 72c | 52.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 72c | 52.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 63c | 52.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 50.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 48.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 45.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 44.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 44.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 73c | 43.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 42.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 35c | 41.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 41.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 66c | 40.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 38.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 32.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 65c | 31.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 31.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 30.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 29.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…643abacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…8fe0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 24.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 24.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 60c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 67c | 23.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 21.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 21.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…975cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…ffaebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…0ccebacked Yes | 71c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 76c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 66c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 71c | 16.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.