NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dcd577d51d302e7760e35764456499eeaa3d2a72c62f4a0dcf4f9ed8e489f4e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof 76ers, Jazz
Resolved: Mar 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,008 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0eb7…1f17backed 76ers	58c	5,176$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	423	48%203 W · 220 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Jazz	50c	4,537$2,269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,268.54	382	51%195 W · 187 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed 76ers	49c	3,932$1,927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,926.66	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	42c	2,683$1,127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,556.29	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	50c	1,865$935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.24	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Jazz	54c	1,794$966 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$827.61	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz	50c	1,200$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz	46c	515.37$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.77	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked 76ers	36c	406$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.16	172	43%74 W · 98 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Jazz	64c	346$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.56	1,200	51.6%619 W · 581 L	+66.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed 76ers	4c	325.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	286	16.4%47 W · 239 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Jazz	43c	285.96$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed 76ers	50c	252.5$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.25	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Jazz	69c	150$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.83	619	57.5%356 W · 263 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	53c	149.25$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.08	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed 76ers	50c	134.05$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.03	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Jazz	51c	98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.02	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked 76ers	49c	72.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.76	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed 76ers	31c	72.25$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Jazz	44c	61.6$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 76ers	35c	56.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Jazz	51c	50.98$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.98	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked 76ers	41c	45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	243	34.2%83 W · 160 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Jazz	51c	44$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.56	233	50.6%118 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…3961backed Jazz	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	137	38.7%53 W · 84 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Jazz	48c	31.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.53	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Jazz	48c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	197	50.3%99 W · 98 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4884…f519backed 76ers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-6.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event