Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e14acfa108f25a88c3ac928911fa2197a18a8d98f9ef6c28f5c406c07011bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 61c | 3,556$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.41 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 2,177$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.93 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 2,139$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.12 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 67c | 1,121$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.23 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 69c | 678.36$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.43 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 7c | 518.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 32c | 478.51$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 52c | 408.02$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 348.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 68c | 285.87$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 69c | 284.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 33c | 244.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 33c | 244.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 39c | 233.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 73c | 202.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Over | 5c | 193.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Under | 67c | 190.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 68c | 171.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 69c | 166$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 165.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 13c | 141.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 70c | 140.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 37c | 136.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 53c | 108.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 104.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 95.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…a564backed Under | 50c | 73.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 25c | 67.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 20c | 59.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 58c | 57.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Under | 54c | 48.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Over | 33c | 42.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Over | 32c | 40.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Over | 33c | 38.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 40c | 34.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 39c | 34.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 61c | 23.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…d6d5backed Under | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.