Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c26ab7193882c67d8d83994e07d114c5f26541359624b21879886f440dca18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 29c | 23,385$6,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,781.55 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 8,644$6,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 71c | 5,182$3,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.37 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 4,791$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.65 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 72c | 2,559$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 71c | 1,575$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.84 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 28c | 1,316$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.33 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 28c | 1,003$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 32c | 999.6$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.87 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 71c | 739.33$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 70c | 701.43$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 72c | 684.46$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 72c | 684.46$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 72c | 684.46$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 72c | 684.46$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 72c | 531.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 72c | 531.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 72c | 531.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 72c | 531.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 72c | 531.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 64c | 463.22$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 72c | 439.1$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 71c | 273.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 27c | 257.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 34c | 245.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 36c | 224.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 75c | 214$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 28c | 199.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 71c | 193.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 72c | 188.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 72c | 188.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…d35fbacked Under | 16c | 185.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 30c | 179.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 175.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Over | 71c | 166.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 36c | 160.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 70c | 156.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Over | 71c | 153.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Over | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 73c | 101.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Over | 72c | 99.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 71c | 94.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Under | 28c | 86.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 31c | 71.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 30c | 66.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 72c | 52.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 72c | 49.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Under | 34c | 48.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 35c | 46.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 71c | 45.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…5083backed Over | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Over | 72c | 44.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 31c | 40.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 31c | 38.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…b052backed Over | 69c | 35.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 71c | 35.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 65c | 29.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…df6cbacked Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…0774backed Over | 70c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…d358backed Over | 68c | 24.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 70c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 65c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 30 | 86.7%26 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Over | 66c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…cab4backed Over | 72c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Over | 72c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Over | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.