WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e38ee98d1f95596b4b2fe45110d4c0587832767ed88f0a9c8239233a5dd1577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 18,593$8,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,924.44 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…67c4backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 11,212$5,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,381.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 10,059$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 6,462$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.78 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 5,708$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.01 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f8…8ea0backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 5,697$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,905.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…84c5backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 5,223$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,559.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 4,057$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.6 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Atlanta Dream | 45c | 3,704$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.44 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Washington Mystics | 55c | 2,929$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.92 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Atlanta Dream | 46c | 2,807$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.75 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 2,759$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.38 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 2,572$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.72 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 2,442$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.66 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 2,321$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.21 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Dream | 65c | 1,682$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.56 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 1,616$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.17 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 1,531$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.37 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 1,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Washington Mystics | 57c | 1,471$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.32 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 1,408$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.46 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Washington Mystics | 55c | 1,001$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 720$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 685.52$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 599.98$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Atlanta Dream | 46c | 522.42$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.11 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 474.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 420$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 377$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream | 61c | 328.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Washington Mystics | 35c | 251.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 238$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Mystics | 35c | 205.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 186.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 159.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 151$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 150.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 46c | 139.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 135$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Dream | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Washington Mystics | 64c | 104.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 88.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 86.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Washington Mystics | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Atlanta Dream | 67c | 71.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Washington Mystics | 35c | 70.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Washington Mystics | 51c | 67.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Washington Mystics | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Dream | 57c | 59.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…c430backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 53.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0031backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 52.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -52%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 49.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 41.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 39.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…a7c8backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Washington Mystics | 35c | 38.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Dream | 43c | 32.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 28.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 26.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Dream | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Atlanta Dream | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 159.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 160.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.