Earnings · resolved market
Will Mattel (MAT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb7f04b1f6b2ca418fc1b088f04ded59a2f10074af56750b699076f3f3b2c5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 1c | 3,247$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 17c | 822$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 72c | 554.35$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 443.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.48 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 24c | 396.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.37 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 26c | 304.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 37c | 303.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed Yes | 78c | 280$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 73c | 203.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 79c | 192.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 76c | 189.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 181.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 78c | 180$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…2bdcbacked Yes | 74c | 173.38$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 77c | 141.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed No | 51c | 139.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 22c | 121.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed No | 46c | 109.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 86.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked Yes | 51c | 56.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 36c | 50.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 75c | 41.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 55c | 39.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…660cbacked Yes | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 76c | 28.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…c6d0backed Yes | 79c | 25.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…96f2backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 80c | 12.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.