TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Aidan Mayo vs Roger Pascual

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aidan Mayoof Aidan Mayo, Roger Pascual
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$199,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27c5…6d61backed Roger Pascual32c36,359$11,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,644.416235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aidan Mayo73c19,287$14,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,129.342,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Aidan Mayo69c17,258$11,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,361.98,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad4…6866backed Roger Pascual30c6,600$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Roger Pascual45c5,020$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.2478840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Roger Pascual28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00071729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Roger Pascual43c3,540$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.484,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Aidan Mayo55c3,465$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.961,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Aidan Mayo69c2,947$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.334,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Roger Pascual41c2,927$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20054541.7%227 W · 318 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bd…a79abacked Aidan Mayo74c2,742$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.221457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Aidan Mayo66c2,161$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.173,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Roger Pascual4c1,927$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.174,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b6…5858backed Roger Pascual3c1,894$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5823030.4%70 W · 160 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Aidan Mayo53c1,852$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.713,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9f…6561backed Roger Pascual4c1,587$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604027.5%11 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+2.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Roger Pascual10c1,364$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.612,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1ce0backed Aidan Mayo74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3512467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aidan Mayo67c1,159$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Roger Pascual46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008956.2%50 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Roger Pascual32c1,043$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.762060%12 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+56.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09da…56ffbacked Roger Pascual29c1,035$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29711832.2%38 W · 80 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Aidan Mayo68c788.29$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4270537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Roger Pascual46c742.53$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.568252.4%43 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Roger Pascual27c602.13$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.582842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…a47dbacked Roger Pascual45c577.78$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2604630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Roger Pascual18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035450.8%180 W · 174 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Aidan Mayo53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.798240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Roger Pascual48c469.25$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1231941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa63…f061backed Roger Pascual17c409.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.677538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Roger Pascual27c407.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.921,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Roger Pascual15c391.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6039648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Roger Pascual10c322.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.192,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Aidan Mayo74c319.61$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.18666.3%57 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e4…68bebacked Roger Pascual29c313.31$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8613636.8%50 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Roger Pascual47c299.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14151744.7%231 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Roger Pascual9c276.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…ed16backed Aidan Mayo80c262.57$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.575657.1%32 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Roger Pascual46c210$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.696755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Roger Pascual21c205.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.251,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Roger Pascual13c204$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.41,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Roger Pascual47c201.89$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8928850.3%145 W · 143 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Roger Pascual27c199.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.331,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Aidan Mayo54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9918552.4%97 W · 88 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Roger Pascual15c195.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017748%85 W · 92 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da4…31bfbacked Aidan Mayo52c183.5$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.864949%24 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed Roger Pascual33c177.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Roger Pascual47c160.37$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.97,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Aidan Mayo53c150.17$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.589866.3%65 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Roger Pascual47c130$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.186835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Roger Pascual16c129.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.87549.3%37 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Roger Pascual46c128.26$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Roger Pascual47c121.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.21,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Roger Pascual43c115.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Roger Pascual47c107.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9855941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d05…ef4abacked Roger Pascual47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Roger Pascual47c104.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.961,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Roger Pascual18c100.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Aidan Mayo78c96.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.151,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Roger Pascual43c82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3760341.1%248 W · 355 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed Roger Pascual18c74.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.139439.4%37 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Aidan Mayo64c61.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.341,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Aidan Mayo52c60.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2515349.7%76 W · 77 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Aidan Mayo52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2967848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Aidan Mayo63c56.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2133165%215 W · 116 L+22.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35ad…294bbacked Aidan Mayo77c54.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.554560%27 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Aidan Mayo71c52.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3523530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Aidan Mayo55c48.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.121,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Aidan Mayo79c45.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.386,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Roger Pascual47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017140.9%70 W · 101 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf795…ab90backed Roger Pascual49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209740.2%39 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc09d…d110backed Aidan Mayo53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.83151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…4f34backed Aidan Mayo53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.82458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a2…b515backed Aidan Mayo53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.89360.2%56 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Roger Pascual41c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5682159.4%488 W · 333 L+3.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf8…5b60backed Aidan Mayo54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0411559.1%68 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Roger Pascual41c36.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0518356.3%103 W · 80 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe69c…7f9bbacked Aidan Mayo68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7617168.4%117 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…b543backed Roger Pascual35c36.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5924546.9%115 W · 130 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Aidan Mayo74c35.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1420563.4%130 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03dd…49c8backed Aidan Mayo53c32.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.546851.5%241 W · 227 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Aidan Mayo54c31.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.541,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Roger Pascual35c30.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Roger Pascual47c29.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.997541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Roger Pascual44c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Aidan Mayo56c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7625259.9%151 W · 101 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e97…8504backed Aidan Mayo52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.859659.4%57 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3daa…524bbacked Aidan Mayo53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.34562.2%28 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02f8…df25backed Aidan Mayo72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7811659.5%69 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d4…7c0dbacked Aidan Mayo70c26.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8535461.3%217 W · 137 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6575…c2c7backed Aidan Mayo56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Aidan Mayo59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3415155%83 W · 68 L-0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Aidan Mayo58c23.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0882…dceabacked Aidan Mayo65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.084143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Roger Pascual47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0127239%106 W · 166 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e5…e3d8backed Aidan Mayo71c21.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0433550.7%170 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x147c…2540backed Aidan Mayo54c19.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0928164.4%181 W · 100 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4f…5ec9backed Aidan Mayo68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.86858.8%40 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Aidan Mayo77c14.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4370456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.