MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f750ac5e7c39791cc77f100f85359bc3f62ce426a12c5f744612e20b75388df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 9,624$5,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,442.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 6,000$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 44c | 4,398$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 2,176$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,008$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,536$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 1,508$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.79 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 36c | 1,460$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 59c | 1,024$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 837.26$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 747.91$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 57c | 740.74$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.07 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 61c | 725.27$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.53 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 42c | 546.93$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.32 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 42c | 388.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 378.69$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 61c | 307.73$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 285.22$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 59c | 273$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 237$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 64c | 217.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 38c | 209.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 58c | 197.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 186.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 58c | 186$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 59c | 181.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 38c | 158.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 41c | 144.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 60c | 134.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 60c | 134.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 41c | 117.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 41c | 116.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 22c | 114.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 64c | 108.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 64c | 108.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 41c | 102.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 47c | 98.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 41c | 98.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 41c | 98.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 41c | 97.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 41c | 91.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 18c | 90.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 59c | 88.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 41c | 78.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 58c | 64.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 52c | 60.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 41c | 57.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 56c | 52.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 44.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 41c | 38.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 36.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 37c | 28.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 41c | 25.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 58c | 23.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 62c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…86b1backed Under | 65c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.