MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf1b515c9295b95862846c6858fc645ef9ca30911fcbf39b55c7995b72c0a1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 2,261$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.67 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 2,179$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.33 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,170$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 833$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.5 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 536.28$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 496.9$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.48 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 29c | 446$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 12c | 415.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 370.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.43 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 331.78$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.57 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 305.49$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.75 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 280$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 10c | 276.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 246.73$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 204.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 199.83$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…4eecbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 186.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 173.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 153.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 109.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Colorado Rockies | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 86.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Colorado Rockies | 26c | 86.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 60.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 57.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 44.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 35c | 36.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 37c | 34.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 20.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…5f6bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.