MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa44c8e08da825f31c85227b2e569ca2dcc63037e2733ea20386d50d1bc37a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,817$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.75 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 1,662$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 43c | 1,061$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.44 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 1,024$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.32 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 931$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 37c | 821.21$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.65 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 499$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Under | 57c | 434.44$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.81 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 421.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 329.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 275.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 49c | 242.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 71c | 222.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 71c | 218.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 150.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Under | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 53c | 91.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 87.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 43c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 42c | 67.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 59c | 40.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 61c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 49c | 27.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.