Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc94a8cfbf771c81607b7f005d6d6d9e0742f464cacc60270e59003e00c6338
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 2,634$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.18 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 495$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 422.41$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 402.86$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 42c | 305.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 180.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 166.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 40c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 63c | 159.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…037fbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 153.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 136.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 42c | 130.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 54c | 129.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 124.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 123$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 114.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 87.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 86.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 39c | 82.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 55.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 53.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 63c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 48.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 44.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 34c | 43.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 36c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 45c | 38.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 38.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 38c | 32.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 31.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 26.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 25.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 24.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 45c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 24.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 23.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.