NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51ca04d1b34f689910c52017294720926057ac68faf2e8906005aee6f38acc2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,928 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 59c | 5,358$3,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.08 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Oilers | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Oilers | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sharks | 42c | 709.17$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.39 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Oilers | 61c | 604.71$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Oilers | 38c | 545.15$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.72 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Sharks | 60c | 515.33$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.44 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sharks | 57c | 501.12$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oilers | 26c | 500.67$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.15 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Oilers | 40c | 499.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Sharks | 60c | 471.08$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.65 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sharks | 59c | 412.5$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sharks | 59c | 366.27$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Oilers | 51c | 276.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…5a75backed Sharks | 60c | 265.27$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…c8aabacked Oilers | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Oilers | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Sharks | 60c | 234.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sharks | 75c | 229.32$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.72 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sharks | 53c | 222.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Sharks | 37c | 215.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Sharks | 24c | 212.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sharks | 44c | 210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Oilers | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Oilers | 39c | 189.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Sharks | 60c | 188.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Oilers | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Sharks | 31c | 106.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sharks | 72c | 98.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…6055backed Oilers | 28c | 90.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked Oilers | 39c | 82.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Oilers | 40c | 63.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Oilers | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Sharks | 58c | 61.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Oilers | 40c | 60.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sharks | 60c | 59.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…f174backed Oilers | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Sharks | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed Oilers | 40c | 48.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…ba5fbacked Oilers | 40c | 47.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed Oilers | 40c | 47.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sharks | 59c | 45.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Oilers | 40c | 44.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Oilers | 38c | 42.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Oilers | 39c | 40.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sharks | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Oilers | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Sharks | 57c | 35.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oilers | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Oilers | 39c | 30.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Oilers | 39c | 28.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Oilers | 41c | 28.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sharks | 65c | 27.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Sharks | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Sharks | 64c | 25.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Oilers | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Sharks | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sharks | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Sharks | 61c | 21.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Sharks | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…45b4backed Sharks | 61c | 18.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…6339backed Sharks | 60c | 17.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…fc71backed Sharks | 61c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. OilersOilers won
- Sharks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.