TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac70…2d8dbacked Natus Vincere41c7,000$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.349245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons53c6,200$3,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,280.9573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons59c5,817$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,442.2155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Natus Vincere27c4,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.974443.2%19 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Team Falcons7c3,570$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5414121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Team Falcons73c3,040$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Natus Vincere39c2,968$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.2554445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere28c2,251$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.9246535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons71c2,162$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.7734146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Falcons73c1,633$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.667357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere77c1,464$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.6177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere78c1,270$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9456848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Natus Vincere29c1,253$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.096850%34 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e88…5ddabacked Natus Vincere69c1,251$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.117562.7%47 W · 28 L+11.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Falcons73c1,234$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.8211253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d81…294abacked Team Falcons73c1,208$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.61030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Team Falcons38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007451.4%38 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Natus Vincere27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7304245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Falcons71c999.99$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9914854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a64…022dbacked Team Falcons72c984.41$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere70c895.34$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x03ae…188bbacked Natus Vincere28c858.52$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d97…f2bebacked Natus Vincere41c845.75$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.754854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere25c826.4$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.81,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45033644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Team Falcons72c723.61$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5218543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons44c707$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.234443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons67c623.79$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.832,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Natus Vincere26c574.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.4933541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd319…a61ebacked Team Falcons72c549.77$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere20c507.35$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.1947748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb020…92f3backed Natus Vincere29c500$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3558554.1%46 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2e…439cbacked Team Falcons31c452.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.672737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c3…ed8fbacked Natus Vincere28c444.66$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.163138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere55c438.25$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.1992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere29c430$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.351140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Natus Vincere52c405.5$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2915047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…54d2backed Team Falcons10c400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons71c400$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28464744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Falcons71c385.06$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27546664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed Team Falcons74c381.08$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2828957.3%51 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere27c367$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9157455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere40c352.5$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4f…f1e0backed Team Falcons43c329.66$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Falcons73c325.71$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6629245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Falcons28c314.7$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2714940.9%61 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons56c311.13$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.921,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Falcons66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19836054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere36c295.49$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6833645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff2…3f58backed Team Falcons68c287.08$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.912227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Team Falcons66c270$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.467853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Team Falcons72c250.56$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808061.3%49 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere50c238.47$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.191,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere67c238.27$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.272951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Natus Vincere20c230.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.471926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere61c215.76$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.981,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Team Falcons73c205.48$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Natus Vincere27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14612843.8%56 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Natus Vincere33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13453757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc6d…f1c8backed Natus Vincere27c199.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.992748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x848c…bfebbacked Team Falcons36c198.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.871838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Team Falcons23c180$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.220530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Team Falcons22c173.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.413827.5%38 W · 100 L-15.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons38c166.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons67c161.64$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.681,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9026957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Team Falcons19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere36c147.53$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4258152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Natus Vincere38c143.79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4511052.7%58 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons46c141$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.512,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Natus Vincere28c138.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.537665.8%50 W · 26 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01a4…d2b5backed Natus Vincere35c131.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.885137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed Team Falcons16c130.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa6…9a42backed Team Falcons73c123.75$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.34540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Team Falcons72c119.54$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.785642.9%24 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Falcons41c117.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8719242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Team Falcons62c113.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3511348.7%55 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb92f…566bbacked Natus Vincere27c105$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.651250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…3cacbacked Team Falcons74c105$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefe0…4fafbacked Team Falcons73c103.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.41030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40d7…615fbacked Team Falcons68c101.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.351533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Natus Vincere27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7317133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5144…7941backed Team Falcons11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf82…6c06backed Natus Vincere40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605927.1%16 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccfd…23fcbacked Natus Vincere28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+147.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Natus Vincere25c99.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9717152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45db…8f65backed Natus Vincere31c96.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.82650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Natus Vincere24c86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.23875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+69.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58ac…7e1fbacked Natus Vincere28c72.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.229836.7%36 W · 62 L-8.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf42c…786bbacked Natus Vincere26c72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Team Falcons34c71.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2318248.4%88 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Natus Vincere27c70.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2595841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd7…6c52backed Natus Vincere28c65.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.138934.8%31 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed Natus Vincere25c65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4912438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9147…baccbacked Natus Vincere30c63.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.036043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2157…3db0backed Natus Vincere32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+50.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x479b…7235backed Team Falcons68c62.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.54045%18 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons50c61.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0748352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2e…2794backed Natus Vincere29c60.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.23240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f8a…9c75backed Team Falcons33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.