Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b51a9e0ff5eabacb70d310dd50494a423d60d370230bf92869db4b1bf392ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 66c | 3,273$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 1,726$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.12 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 38c | 1,600$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 72c | 1,376$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 1,344$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,321$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 1,197$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.31 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked No | 72c | 1,189$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 35c | 1,142$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.81 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 1,084$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 72c | 1,042$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed Yes | 22c | 1,006$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 24c | 883.25$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 11c | 800.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 768$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 9c | 759.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 76c | 485.25$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 442.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 353$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 326.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 283.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed No | 55c | 278.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…9c23backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 25c | 252.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 67c | 240$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 24c | 210.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Yes | 24c | 209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 72c | 196.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 177.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 73c | 143.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 76c | 138$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 134.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…c346backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d3…c5debacked Yes | 28c | 127.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…0979backed Yes | 28c | 126.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 81.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 72c | 74.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 24c | 65.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 28c | 46.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 71c | 42.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 28c | 41.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 72c | 38.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked No | 78c | 37.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…c4d9backed No | 72c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked No | 70c | 23.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…d821backed No | 72c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked No | 71c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.