TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Blue Otter vs Contingent Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Contingent Esportsof Blue Otter, Contingent Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Blue Otter40c2,645$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.41,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Contingent Esports57c2,323$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.1939162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Contingent Esports73c2,210$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.9233857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Blue Otter5c1,970$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.12,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Contingent Esports67c1,929$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.7366559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2e19…e1e8backed Blue Otter10c1,800$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1758658.1%50 W · 36 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Contingent Esports59c1,265$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.6934255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed Contingent Esports50c1,190$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.124658.5%144 W · 102 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Blue Otter46c1,177$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.3218061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Contingent Esports49c1,095$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.1389050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Blue Otter56c1,059$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.7362158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Contingent Esports67c1,051$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.281,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Blue Otter42c999.98$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9936155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed Contingent Esports51c951.73$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed Blue Otter27c949.97$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9932337.2%120 W · 203 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Blue Otter29c909.29$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.351,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Contingent Esports67c907.29$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.711,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Blue Otter55c901.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Blue Otter55c817.14$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.940446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Blue Otter23c777.08$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.731,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Contingent Esports46c716.84$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.8423549.4%116 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Blue Otter41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2872,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Blue Otter25c666.41$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.91,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Contingent Esports46c646.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.2642348.2%204 W · 219 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Blue Otter14c599.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.441,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Blue Otter47c596.43$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.3235659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Blue Otter54c587$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0169041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed Contingent Esports52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9215352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Blue Otter55c543.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Blue Otter29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14594237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Blue Otter59c438.81$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26012747.2%60 W · 67 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Blue Otter47c433.27$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0534658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Contingent Esports79c428.81$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0535058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed Blue Otter33c400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.394531.1%14 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe891…f500backed Blue Otter53c354.29$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Blue Otter34c320$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.833332.7%109 W · 224 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Blue Otter51c300$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.435045.1%158 W · 192 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Contingent Esports51c294.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2246846.8%219 W · 249 L-23.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c92…04f7backed Blue Otter31c288.35$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.462661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9f…998bbacked Contingent Esports55c271.77$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.223141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Blue Otter36c231.19$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3453545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Contingent Esports67c229.3$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7742055%231 W · 189 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Contingent Esports48c205.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.831,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Blue Otter10c191.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.263426%165 W · 469 L-90.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed Blue Otter54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed Blue Otter57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025660.5%155 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Blue Otter19c164$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4515823.4%37 W · 121 L-21.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-58.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xff85…e923backed Blue Otter51c162.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.79339.8%37 W · 56 L-10.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Blue Otter38c154.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed Blue Otter40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607828.2%22 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Blue Otter45c149.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.517738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Contingent Esports58c149.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8294444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78e4…4f28backed Blue Otter9c137.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324655.3%136 W · 110 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Contingent Esports48c135$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.270057.3%401 W · 299 L+36.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Blue Otter51c117.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9752441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Contingent Esports72c117$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3455844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Blue Otter48c104.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1660855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b1…f560backed Contingent Esports77c104.42$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.426963.8%44 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x795d…f703backed Contingent Esports58c103.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Blue Otter41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4177741.7%324 W · 453 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aab…26a4backed Contingent Esports78c98.59$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.596861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec7…4b43backed Contingent Esports67c95.29$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4811349.6%56 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Blue Otter45c87.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.472,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e87…e4e7backed Contingent Esports64c86.97$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.096966.7%46 W · 23 L+11.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+48.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Blue Otter33c81.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8930543%131 W · 174 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ba…7c09backed Blue Otter56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017462.6%109 W · 65 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Contingent Esports45c66.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.592342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Contingent Esports61c65.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7236460.2%219 W · 145 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff95…859cbacked Contingent Esports45c62.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.185170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Blue Otter30c60.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.031,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Contingent Esports53c60.38$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3819840.4%80 W · 118 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Contingent Esports54c60.36$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7738945.2%176 W · 213 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05c…d8fcbacked Contingent Esports45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Contingent Esports67c59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.471,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Blue Otter51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015038.7%58 W · 92 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Blue Otter26c58.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.142,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked Blue Otter51c57.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.428143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Blue Otter19c56.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Blue Otter27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1575142.1%316 W · 435 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Blue Otter58c51.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023458.5%137 W · 97 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ba…c423backed Blue Otter30c50.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.224047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Blue Otter24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.171,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb1c…2679backed Blue Otter55c46.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4144461.7%274 W · 170 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x298f…b4e1backed Blue Otter55c44.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.517052.9%37 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked Contingent Esports48c39.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3650550.7%256 W · 249 L+34.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a60…a744backed Blue Otter53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052945.9%243 W · 286 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf006…bf1ebacked Blue Otter51c37.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1969247%325 W · 367 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0911…b92dbacked Contingent Esports44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.098435.7%30 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Blue Otter44c31.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6318738.5%72 W · 115 L-13.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Contingent Esports72c27.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.759147.3%43 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Blue Otter57c27.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7517357.8%100 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Contingent Esports64c26.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.711,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x131a…e4d0backed Contingent Esports69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.655170.6%36 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Contingent Esports44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Contingent Esports48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1328458.8%167 W · 117 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x330f…91b1backed Blue Otter45c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241,24752.8%659 W · 588 L+15.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Blue Otter42c24.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3957349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc42…b12cbacked Contingent Esports65c22.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.96654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Contingent Esports67c22.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3922043.6%96 W · 124 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Contingent Esports51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.885849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.