Tennis · resolved market
Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5398dd21a003640d68afbd703b09e381d713afe4eb8b4d7db01b18fe122bbb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Talia Gibson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $333,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Talia Gibson | 5c | 37,575$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.43 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Talia Gibson | 6c | 13,972$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Talia Gibson | 14c | 10,698$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Talia Gibson | 7c | 9,237$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.25 | 937 | 40.6%380 W · 557 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Talia Gibson | 11c | 9,091$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Talia Gibson | 5c | 7,987$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.04 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Talia Gibson | 12c | 6,468$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.94 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Talia Gibson | 1c | 5,728$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Talia Gibson | 6c | 5,587$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Talia Gibson | 14c | 4,693$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.02 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Talia Gibson | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed Talia Gibson | 5c | 4,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.47 | 440 | 18.9%83 W · 357 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Talia Gibson | 4c | 3,996$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 377 | 38.2%144 W · 233 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Talia Gibson | 6c | 2,851$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Talia Gibson | 8c | 2,460$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 1,990$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Talia Gibson | 4c | 1,861$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,026 | 50%513 W · 513 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Talia Gibson | 6c | 1,858$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Talia Gibson | 11c | 1,731$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.37 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Talia Gibson | 13c | 1,709$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Talia Gibson | 10c | 1,442$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Talia Gibson | 10c | 1,440$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…62edbacked Talia Gibson | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…6e89backed Talia Gibson | 2c | 1,389$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Talia Gibson | 15c | 984.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…7f2abacked Talia Gibson | 4c | 949.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…b5c0backed Talia Gibson | 15c | 925.9$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Talia Gibson | 6c | 823.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…8ea1backed Talia Gibson | 6c | 773.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 644.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 353 | 57.2%202 W · 151 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Talia Gibson | 14c | 600$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Talia Gibson | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 599.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 433.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 464 | 35.3%164 W · 300 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Talia Gibson | 13c | 380.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Talia Gibson | 13c | 375$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 370.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Talia Gibson | 10c | 365$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Talia Gibson | 11c | 361.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,077 | 52.4%564 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Talia Gibson | 12c | 342.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Talia Gibson | 5c | 341.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 337.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Talia Gibson | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 225 | 40.4%91 W · 134 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Talia Gibson | 6c | 299.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Talia Gibson | 13c | 275.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Talia Gibson | 6c | 274.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Talia Gibson | 12c | 273.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Talia Gibson | 12c | 270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…a1aebacked Talia Gibson | 4c | 243.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Talia Gibson | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…67f1backed Talia Gibson | 8c | 239$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +495.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Talia Gibson | 13c | 202.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Talia Gibson | 8c | 198.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Talia Gibson | 6c | 189.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Talia Gibson | 7c | 159.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 184 | 59.8%110 W · 74 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Talia Gibson | 14c | 115.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 221 | 52.9%117 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Talia Gibson | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Talia Gibson | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Talia Gibson | 13c | 98.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 284 | 42.3%120 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Talia Gibson | 15c | 93.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Talia Gibson | 14c | 83.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibsonthis page
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.