WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543338ac39054c2c99a2442504998039284cd974ba3fba4fd0f939d8a86c2774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Indiana Fever, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 4,630$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.4 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 3,600$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.04 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 3,471$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.87 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 2,826$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.01 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 2,424$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 1,889$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.69 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,755$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.39 | 564 | 55.1%311 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 1,413$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.68 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 1,082$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 946.39$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…98f8backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 723.46$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.73 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 622.96$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.13 | 420 | 46.7%196 W · 224 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 495.41$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.53 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Seattle Storm | 46c | 413.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 284.6$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 511 | 47.2%241 W · 270 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 230.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 202.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 202$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 190.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 187.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 904 | 49.4%447 W · 457 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 178.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 160.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 332 | 48.8%162 W · 170 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 157.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 144.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…1ebebacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 121.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 402 | 47.3%190 W · 212 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 627 | 46.9%294 W · 333 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 98.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 96.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 69.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…541ebacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 67.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 59.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 54.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 54.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Indiana Fever | 62c | 51.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 33.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 29.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Seattle Storm | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 26.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)this page
- Aliyah Boston: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Aliyah Boston: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.