MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54685f58705cbb4b0b5635894d764412bd55d7bce2692f91fe9b249a29aba123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 59c | 9,580$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,652.33 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 41c | 5,863$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 41c | 2,826$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.34 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…4375backed Over | 59c | 2,372$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 2,055$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.47 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.99 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Over | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 41c | 330.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 58c | 330$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 297.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 224$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 175.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…efe7backed Over | 58c | 168.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 165$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 158.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 33c | 136.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 43c | 120.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 117$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 42c | 115.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 41c | 100.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 96.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 59c | 93.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…45ddbacked Under | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 58c | 87.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 41c | 71.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 33c | 68.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 58c | 27.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 42c | 27.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 27.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…7efcbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 48c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.