MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611e0521e239d1dda607f381f5f5ccd7fb77f3709f68ecd0cd8dd9c5aff36870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x531b…32b6backed Yes | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 53c | 2,251$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 52c | 1,352$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.96 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked No | 53c | 1,120$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.3 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 47c | 740.81$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.18 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 53c | 470.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.36 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 48c | 229.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 32c | 173.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 48c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 47c | 149.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 104.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…45ddbacked No | 71c | 98.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 56c | 98.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked No | 75c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 53c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 52c | 60.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed No | 53c | 55.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…4a81backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 53c | 41.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3218…b696backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 53c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.