MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f3122ee64d1de880cff1192465ebd999ee009c984e1d5f909f7c8a8b589b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 37c | 11,751$4,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,403.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 7,986$5,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,038.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 2,589$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 72c | 2,483$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.25 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 2,441$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 1,842$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 987.79$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.31 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 817.15$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.79 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 708.99$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 686$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.28 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 649$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.89 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 534.92$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.28 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f9d1backed New York Yankees | 39c | 302.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 212.44$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 209.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 162$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 149.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 146.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked New York Yankees | 34c | 105.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed New York Yankees | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 37c | 84.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 36c | 77.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 73.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 63.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 62.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 57.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 50.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked New York Yankees | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Yankees | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 47.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 46.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 45.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…1139backed New York Yankees | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 35.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…7ef8backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 31.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked New York Yankees | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 29.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 27.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 22.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.