MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf41231c2b4ed8c8f29266c623d050cb2e1e53e4441e6ae39976d791cfe8ff50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 106,630$54,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,381.18 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 25,181$12,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,835.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 23,720$11,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,073.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…4375backed Over | 51c | 20,775$10,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,530.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 49c | 20,300$9,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,353 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 4,164$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.64 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 49c | 3,525$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.96 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 49c | 3,476$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.89 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 49c | 2,838$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 2,198$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 2,047$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.74 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 2,025$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.01 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,551$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 49c | 1,466$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.74 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 1,262$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 50c | 1,034$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.77 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 49c | 711$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 513.52$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.47 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 49c | 362.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.12 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 301.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 274.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 49c | 225.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 191.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 51c | 144.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 140.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 49c | 133$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 49c | 131$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 99.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 32c | 98.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 51c | 74.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 49c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 42c | 73.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 50c | 72.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 31c | 72.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 49c | 62.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 51.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 47.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 46.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…7efcbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 52c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 52c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…1f97backed Over | 51c | 19.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.