Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5496f673837bb299b629646c2acb3a23d54ba3f93fc8f164c3e19ecd5fd715dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 1,474$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 602.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 12c | 467.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 457.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 285$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 19c | 279.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 253.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 21c | 245.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 233.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…d7cbbacked Yes | 17c | 171.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 136$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 133.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 114$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 112.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 19c | 97.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 87.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 75.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 75.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 28c | 68.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 53.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 43.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 35.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 34.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194d…85c0backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 79c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 75c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.