TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,399 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes31c1,123$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.8131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No60c578.1$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes28c294.83$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2135325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes43c287.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.598,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c255$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.552,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c242.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.16,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No24c198.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.144,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No73c172.28$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.061,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c162$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c160.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes33c148.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No45c139.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.427,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c139.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.642,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c129.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c124.1$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.045,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c112.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.231,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No70c104.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5154547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes20c103.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.11,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No25c99.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8189544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.455,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c84.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No51c82.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.132,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No66c82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No66c80.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2235344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes65c80.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1531062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No63c77.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No68c76.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.051,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes54c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes34c71.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2419947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No69c70$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4849551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No69c70$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No66c65.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9758152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No71c63.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No74c57.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.071,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No26c56.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c55.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.284,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed Yes27c54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4213950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No20c52.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4216144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No51c50.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.722,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c50.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.92,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0820341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c49.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.182,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No58c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.92,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes32c47.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes62c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.12,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No74c41.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No63c39.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.062,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes33c39.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c38.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.699,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes32c36.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes40c36.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7112334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b0…7c9abacked No69c36.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes70c35.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe45…fd22backed No53c35.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No68c34.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes59c33.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5452446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No52c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.042,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No70c31.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2926458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.764859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.547569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe266…03b5backed Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes59c29.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes40c29.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.532,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes37c29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.273,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes40c28.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.914,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No60c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5129751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No42c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.072,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No64c22.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.441,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes67c22.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2622550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890c…9068backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed No71c18.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.173444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4319648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a0c…4e61backed No69c15.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9510758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.