CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Vitality
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5549c008d24552cb92ffa7f047e46068e8805311abbc0a97e2201cacca85547d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof The MongolZ, Vitality
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e71…b27ebacked The MongolZ | 26c | 31,618$8,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,257.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…cc19backed Vitality | 75c | 13,333$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed The MongolZ | 0c | 12,885$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked The MongolZ | 6c | 11,528$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.62 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Vitality | 73c | 3,926$2,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.13 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed The MongolZ | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed The MongolZ | 14c | 2,858$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Vitality | 76c | 2,100$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 446 | 48.4%216 W · 230 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked The MongolZ | 26c | 1,683$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.49 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Vitality | 76c | 1,520$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.8 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Vitality | 76c | 1,290$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.59 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…32aebacked The MongolZ | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked The MongolZ | 23c | 1,016$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.48 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Vitality | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Vitality | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Vitality | 75c | 999.99$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked The MongolZ | 25c | 999.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 359 | 40.4%145 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked The MongolZ | 26c | 885$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed The MongolZ | 25c | 759.76$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Vitality | 75c | 722.56$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed The MongolZ | 23c | 581.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed The MongolZ | 11c | 436.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Vitality | 74c | 430$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed The MongolZ | 13c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed The MongolZ | 23c | 311.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed The MongolZ | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed The MongolZ | 24c | 299.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Vitality | 76c | 295.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed The MongolZ | 24c | 275$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Vitality | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…f06ebacked Vitality | 77c | 260.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Vitality | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Vitality | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Vitality | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf0…562abacked Vitality | 78c | 220.92$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked The MongolZ | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked The MongolZ | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Vitality | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…e76cbacked Vitality | 75c | 192.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…f7f0backed The MongolZ | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…8843backed The MongolZ | 19c | 140.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Vitality | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Vitality | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Vitality | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Vitality | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked The MongolZ | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed The MongolZ | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked The MongolZ | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed The MongolZ | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…9481backed Vitality | 76c | 96.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed The MongolZ | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed Vitality | 75c | 81.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked The MongolZ | 28c | 72.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 36.6%63 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…32b9backed The MongolZ | 21c | 71.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…f5c4backed The MongolZ | 25c | 69.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…9073backed Vitality | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Vitality | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed The MongolZ | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed The MongolZ | 25c | 52.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked Vitality | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5f…8989backed Vitality | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Vitality | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f58…254cbacked The MongolZ | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Vitality | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Vitality | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 319 | 33.5%107 W · 212 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked The MongolZ | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…e4f4backed Vitality | 76c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Vitality | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…096ebacked Vitality | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…2444backed Vitality | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.