Champions League · resolved market
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559c8f189983a0e0be465c6a8d72d17bc091053d0a2687371b323a99f8c9a5f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,708 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 7,051$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,936$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56e…1a92backed Yes | 21c | 2,096$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 79c | 2,080$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.28 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 76c | 436.98$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…318ebacked Yes | 3c | 414.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 20c | 399.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 8c | 376.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 14c | 371.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed Yes | 14c | 325.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 25c | 205.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…ebb5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 195.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ce…c9b5backed Yes | 17c | 195.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fd…5fe4backed Yes | 19c | 193.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 16c | 187.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 11c | 165.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…0170backed Yes | 21c | 150.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 75c | 144.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 137.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…1093backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes | 25c | 121.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 18c | 81.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…4c2fbacked Yes | 25c | 78.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…03ebbacked No | 73c | 76.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ca…0f26backed Yes | 29c | 69.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 20c | 69.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…13b5backed No | 78c | 65.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 17c | 62.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…db37backed Yes | 23c | 61.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…3981backed Yes | 23c | 55.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…2d49backed Yes | 28c | 47.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?this page
- Will Alexander Sorloth be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Bradley Barcola be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Bukayo Saka be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Hugo Ekitike be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Jamal Musiala be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Jose Vinicius Junior be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?Yes won
- Will Lamine Yamal be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Lautaro Martinez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Marcos Rashford be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Michael Olise be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Raphinha be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Robert Lewandowski be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will Viktor Gyokeres be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
- Will de Goes Rodrygo be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.