TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wanted Goonsof F5 Esports, Wanted Goons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed F5 Esports36c16,360$5,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,809.011,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Wanted Goons74c6,084$4,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.1410735.5%38 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Wanted Goons54c4,120$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.341,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed F5 Esports49c3,317$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.572,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Wanted Goons73c2,465$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.9116036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked F5 Esports52c2,026$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.13,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3208…07a7backed F5 Esports24c1,873$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.1213839.9%55 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Wanted Goons62c1,872$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.3827452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f9…19a0backed Wanted Goons73c1,500$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.922090%18 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.27per pick63cpaid+74.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked F5 Esports33c1,263$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.35,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Wanted Goons47c1,080$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.5591648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed F5 Esports23c847.11$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1324746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4efe…d987backed F5 Esports47c846.24$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Wanted Goons59c809.12$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.0228943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Wanted Goons69c792.83$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.922,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Wanted Goons48c767$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.7149841.8%208 W · 290 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed F5 Esports34c714.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9268059.3%403 W · 277 L+64.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked F5 Esports46c630.17$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.692,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Wanted Goons62c628.85$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.6638037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Wanted Goons71c625.76$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.580542.2%340 W · 465 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed F5 Esports17c603.11$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3515923.3%37 W · 122 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed Wanted Goons55c582.35$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.4732748.6%159 W · 168 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Wanted Goons60c568.22$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.2231345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed F5 Esports29c560.54$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0877351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Wanted Goons50c555$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.524551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Wanted Goons56c551.51$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.8636649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed F5 Esports29c526.81$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.632,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed F5 Esports3c499.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked F5 Esports44c487.67$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.773,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x592c…ee32backed Wanted Goons71c441.21$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.446657.6%38 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wanted Goons70c436.78$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.597,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Wanted Goons69c419.18$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5140542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x592c…2824backed F5 Esports27c414.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.852123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f48…ba84backed Wanted Goons76c408$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.471376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked Wanted Goons55c401.71$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2630450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Wanted Goons53c395.39$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3573548.4%356 W · 379 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…a3e1backed F5 Esports29c393.9$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.233836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Wanted Goons64c391.22$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2240558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Wanted Goons56c380.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6391245.8%418 W · 494 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Wanted Goons63c377.41$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.699863.3%62 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked F5 Esports26c368.71$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.751,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…3c1abacked F5 Esports16c353.1$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.367424.3%18 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Wanted Goons75c343.88$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8928355.5%157 W · 126 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Wanted Goons50c340$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.972536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed F5 Esports30c332.22$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.494141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed F5 Esports50c326.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.443647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked Wanted Goons55c326.44$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.26238.7%24 W · 38 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Wanted Goons52c322$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9119840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked F5 Esports32c308.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33ad…a123backed F5 Esports33c308.01$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10112946.5%60 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c7…38e1backed F5 Esports37c270.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Wanted Goons54c259.14$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4521945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed F5 Esports34c249.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.992,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa13a…4bafbacked Wanted Goons80c248.2$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.641060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed F5 Esports34c245.87$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1523654.7%129 W · 107 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Wanted Goons66c227.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5135153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed F5 Esports24c213.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.671,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Wanted Goons71c211.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2744675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Wanted Goons62c205.97$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.792,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Wanted Goons44c202.93$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9221445.8%98 W · 116 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked Wanted Goons53c202.92$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.928947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Wanted Goons75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Wanted Goons68c199.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9924562%152 W · 93 L+21.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Wanted Goons50c199.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.478952%410 W · 379 L+26.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed Wanted Goons45c186.27$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8717041.2%70 W · 100 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed F5 Esports29c184.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6330155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc3…973fbacked Wanted Goons47c181.91$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked F5 Esports42c181.41$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9241150.1%206 W · 205 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Wanted Goons56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5721137.4%79 W · 132 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1651…470fbacked F5 Esports41c171.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1610259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed F5 Esports35c171$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.742,46724.6%606 W · 1,861 L-318.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked F5 Esports32c168.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.563554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed F5 Esports46c160.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.571,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked Wanted Goons75c152.21$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0533060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Wanted Goons64c151.95$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.613,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Wanted Goons66c151.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7825554.5%139 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed F5 Esports34c151.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4414042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Wanted Goons66c151.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8542149.6%209 W · 212 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed F5 Esports45c149.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.525851.9%134 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x202f…7b58backed Wanted Goons46c142.94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.445536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe123…b4ffbacked Wanted Goons42c139.84$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.498548.2%41 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca8…7e67backed Wanted Goons54c138.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2112343.9%54 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Wanted Goons62c133.85$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4945138.4%173 W · 278 L-29.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9943…67b7backed F5 Esports36c133.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.573735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed F5 Esports34c124.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.247142.3%30 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Wanted Goons54c122.35$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.849347.3%44 W · 49 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed F5 Esports39c112.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9827048.9%132 W · 138 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edb…d34dbacked F5 Esports30c111.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked F5 Esports34c106.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7621623.6%51 W · 165 L-27.4wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-39.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed F5 Esports43c105.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed F5 Esports33c100.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0550051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked F5 Esports30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Wanted Goons69c97.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.851,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x285b…df1ebacked F5 Esports42c97.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0315247.4%72 W · 80 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed F5 Esports44c95.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.732437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…021ebacked F5 Esports18c94.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64332.6%14 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+212.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed Wanted Goons65c93.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2251969.2%359 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked F5 Esports40c93.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.622,08447%979 W · 1,105 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked F5 Esports36c81.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6749041.8%205 W · 285 L-18.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x661e…48efbacked Wanted Goons42c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.45453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.