TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Istanbul 2: Koki Matsuda vs Kerem Yilmaz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Koki Matsudaof Koki Matsuda, Kerem Yilmaz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Koki Matsuda78c5,323$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.718,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Koki Matsuda44c4,409$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.228,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Kerem Yilmaz14c2,996$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.724,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Kerem Yilmaz60c2,763$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.6211850%59 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Kerem Yilmaz59c1,799$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.424,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Kerem Yilmaz25c1,670$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.753,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x772b…1840backed Koki Matsuda64c1,552$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.829136.3%33 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Kerem Yilmaz5c1,444$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.453,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Kerem Yilmaz19c870$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.451,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6a…9fb9backed Koki Matsuda59c780$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.82864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Kerem Yilmaz28c600$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.367,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed Kerem Yilmaz35c541.52$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9239759.4%236 W · 161 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Koki Matsuda65c536.74$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8630147.5%143 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Kerem Yilmaz27c475.48$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.581,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Koki Matsuda72c341.23$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5953043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Koki Matsuda59c254.33$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.471,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Koki Matsuda76c254.11$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.265,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kerem Yilmaz52c242.58$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.286,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Kerem Yilmaz27c238.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.341,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Koki Matsuda70c217.77$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3314757.1%84 W · 63 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Kerem Yilmaz13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610632.1%34 W · 72 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Kerem Yilmaz32c199.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5636839.1%144 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Kerem Yilmaz26c193.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.21,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Koki Matsuda73c191.13$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1340161.1%245 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed Kerem Yilmaz13c160.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218616.3%14 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Kerem Yilmaz61c150$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.841,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Kerem Yilmaz59c145.42$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.850268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Koki Matsuda74c143.39$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.121,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Kerem Yilmaz30c141.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.557,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e14…5169backed Koki Matsuda64c136.4$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.343655.6%20 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Kerem Yilmaz28c130.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3976355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Koki Matsuda73c123.25$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2520563.4%130 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Kerem Yilmaz37c121.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Kerem Yilmaz37c121.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Kerem Yilmaz33c119$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4197852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Kerem Yilmaz44c113.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9114150.4%71 W · 70 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Koki Matsuda71c107.18$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1839254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Kerem Yilmaz13c102$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2630132.9%99 W · 202 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Kerem Yilmaz16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626640.6%108 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kerem Yilmaz47c99.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.084,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Koki Matsuda48c98.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7130625.8%79 W · 227 L-28.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Koki Matsuda56c91.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2842946.4%199 W · 230 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Koki Matsuda80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Koki Matsuda75c87.75$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.176,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Koki Matsuda50c85.07$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8326955%148 W · 121 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Kerem Yilmaz27c80.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.843,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Koki Matsuda44c75.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4195050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Koki Matsuda55c73.26$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.636759.7%40 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Kerem Yilmaz36c70.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.382,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Kerem Yilmaz38c69.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.462,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…f356backed Kerem Yilmaz61c66.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.397963.3%50 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Koki Matsuda63c63.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1460141.1%247 W · 354 L-11.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb11a…a5d9backed Koki Matsuda40c61.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7312748.8%62 W · 65 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Kerem Yilmaz37c56.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.248152%250 W · 231 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70bb…10d3backed Kerem Yilmaz54c56.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3933754%182 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Kerem Yilmaz32c55.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.725048.8%122 W · 128 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Kerem Yilmaz37c55.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4635039.4%138 W · 212 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Kerem Yilmaz44c51.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.551942.6%221 W · 298 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Kerem Yilmaz36c49.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.995,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Kerem Yilmaz55c47.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.272860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed Koki Matsuda68c45.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.666838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Koki Matsuda70c45.07$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.671,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Kerem Yilmaz60c44.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.411,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Koki Matsuda58c41.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.587,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed Kerem Yilmaz61c39.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2426748.7%130 W · 137 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kerem Yilmaz52c34.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.839,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Kerem Yilmaz59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95e…102abacked Koki Matsuda62c31.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.093268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Kerem Yilmaz52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb663…f135backed Kerem Yilmaz52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1556337.3%210 W · 353 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73d…7a13backed Kerem Yilmaz37c27.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Koki Matsuda72c26.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.489859.7%536 W · 362 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4f…a63ebacked Koki Matsuda63c25.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.527448.6%36 W · 38 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Koki Matsuda74c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.521,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Kerem Yilmaz60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Kerem Yilmaz55c23.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.912,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Koki Matsuda64c23.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3744138.8%171 W · 270 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Koki Matsuda53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Koki Matsuda62c16.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2474346.3%344 W · 399 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x147c…2540backed Koki Matsuda69c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9628164.4%181 W · 100 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.