Earnings · resolved market
Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x561fbcac1b906bfc402452d6b78e1e96b9fd22b1ea300b39bf53bf6a07baba13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 30c | 637$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.18 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked No | 40c | 549.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 58c | 499.99$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 68c | 400$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 21c | 280.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.81 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 29c | 266.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 256.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…b708backed Yes | 79c | 223.75$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 22c | 194.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 30c | 193.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 31c | 177.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 67c | 174.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 21c | 169.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 168$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 159.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 138.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 132.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 19c | 132.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…0454backed No | 24c | 130$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 123.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 22c | 116.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 21c | 98.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…df87backed Yes | 73c | 93.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 27c | 77.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…5b81backed No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 60c | 66.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 28c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 40c | 50.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a2…9a1fbacked Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…62f3backed No | 31c | 41.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 76c | 37.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 29c | 37.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…2ae5backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…2155backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 70c | 18.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 78c | 13.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.