NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564a1be58b517f56063ec03999e91da7c4f7150a97d6393278ffbed7974c5fe7

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hornetsof Hornets, Timberwolves
Resolved: Apr 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $236,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $273,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hornets	53c	45,875$24,294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,580.96	365	49.6%181 W · 184 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Timberwolves	47c	34,460$16,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,196.24	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…34c3backed Timberwolves	0c	22,628$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…f117backed Timberwolves	1c	13,040$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.79	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…d354backed Timberwolves	0c	13,015$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.45	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f4…ee13backed Timberwolves	1c	12,964$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.03	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d32…9dfcbacked Timberwolves	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2731…6e32backed Timberwolves	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.41per pick	34cpaid	+69.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves	47c	5,957$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,799.75	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa136…ea3cbacked Timberwolves	49c	5,935$2,908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,908.2	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-3.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hornets	51c	5,730$2,938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,792.08	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets	51c	4,183$2,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,049.62	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves	49c	3,207$1,576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,575.77	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Timberwolves	63c	3,117$1,963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,963.08	145	56.6%82 W · 63 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb579…d7d0backed Timberwolves	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Timberwolves	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.99	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Hornets	52c	2,700$1,404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,295.97	100	46%46 W · 54 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+27%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Hornets	51c	2,679$1,366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,312.91	259	45.6%118 W · 141 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves	54c	2,068$1,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.88	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves	47c	1,668$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.96	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Timberwolves	48c	1,034$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.52	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Timberwolves	49c	997.51$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.78	316	43.4%137 W · 179 L	-18.0wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Hornets	5c	982.42$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$933.29	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Hornets	46c	939.32$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.97	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Hornets	71c	756.74$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.24	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Hornets	53c	731.19$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.66	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves	49c	705.05$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.47	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets	51c	703.9$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.91	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Timberwolves	49c	700$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Hornets	52c	631.28$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.01	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-5.7wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Timberwolves	40c	499.92$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.97	263	39.5%104 W · 159 L	-13.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Timberwolves	48c	399.99$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	443	45.1%200 W · 243 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Hornets	51c	380.63$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.51	284	48.2%137 W · 147 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Hornets	52c	373.54$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.3	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d0…7ee5backed Hornets	53c	347.95$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.54	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf60…6df7backed Timberwolves	47c	320.57$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.74	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Timberwolves	12c	289.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.74	182	35.7%65 W · 117 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Timberwolves	49c	201.64$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Timberwolves	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4c…bc84backed Timberwolves	50c	194$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.28per pick	53cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Hornets	51c	190.31$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.25	59	64.4%38 W · 21 L	+9.8wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Timberwolves	53c	183.36$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.18	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Timberwolves	47c	159.57$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Timberwolves	49c	98.92$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.47	660	46.4%306 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Hornets	52c	93.38$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.82	185	52.4%97 W · 88 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Hornets	53c	91.68$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.09	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hornets	51c	72.72$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.63	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Timberwolves	55c	72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.55	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves	48c	60.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Timberwolves	49c	59.35$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.08	135	54.8%74 W · 61 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Timberwolves	50c	55.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…7f2cbacked Hornets	53c	55.01$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	67	62.7%42 W · 25 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cad…0303backed Hornets	68c	53.1$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.92	110	59.1%65 W · 45 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Timberwolves	58c	51.3$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	116	51.7%60 W · 56 L	-10.0wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Hornets	52c	48.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.31	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Timberwolves	48c	46.63$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.38	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Hornets	60c	45.32$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.13	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Timberwolves	43c	43.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	616	38.5%237 W · 379 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f52…ce1bbacked Hornets	52c	41.04$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.65	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Hornets	52c	37.35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.93	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Hornets	55c	34.46$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.51	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Hornets	55c	33.97$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.28	75	72%54 W · 21 L	+11.7wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+22%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe7be…908dbacked Timberwolves	50c	33.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	78	46.2%36 W · 42 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Hornets	46c	28.32$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.21	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Timberwolves	47c	26.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf462…2cd4backed Timberwolves	48c	24.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets	48c	22.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.82	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)this page
1H Spread: Hornets (-0.5)Timberwolves won
1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Timberwolves won
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5No won
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 15.5No won
Coby White: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Hornets vs. TimberwolvesHornets won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
Hornets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 18.5No won
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
Miles Bridges: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Hornets won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event