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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Pipsqueak+4, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6204…0b06backed Pipsqueak+434c2,939$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.2350%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Pipsqueak+442c2,223$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.4854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed Natus Vincere62c1,920$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.972572%18 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+436c1,855$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.4599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere61c1,761$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.1180159.1%473 W · 328 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Pipsqueak+440c1,528$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.5353764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Pipsqueak+441c1,172$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.493938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Pipsqueak+413c1,154$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.996141%25 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere58c969.99$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Natus Vincere66c832.94$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.28459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Pipsqueak+440c799.96$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9845951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere73c797.39$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Natus Vincere66c709.07$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9627060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Natus Vincere58c646.57$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.5615457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf93…0d84backed Natus Vincere61c625$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.57553.3%40 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Pipsqueak+46c599.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5321558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Natus Vincere52c581.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8748053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Pipsqueak+444c572.79$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.146445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Pipsqueak+437c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere71c538.56$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8651364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed Pipsqueak+418c506.69$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.313144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere65c495$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Pipsqueak+438c472.68$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6217965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Pipsqueak+433c469.13$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Natus Vincere47c422.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.349044.4%40 W · 50 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Pipsqueak+464c420$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9214259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Natus Vincere74c418.08$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.531,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf4f…0bf2backed Natus Vincere50c390$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.393138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Pipsqueak+432c389.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.814157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+431c349.62$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.062,83443.6%1,236 W · 1,598 L-39.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Pipsqueak+443c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af5…4bbabacked Natus Vincere64c342.1$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.792347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Pipsqueak+433c333$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8917633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ee…b742backed Natus Vincere59c316.68$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.291770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c18…9b0ebacked Pipsqueak+452c307.56$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Natus Vincere56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13254259%320 W · 222 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Pipsqueak+453c299.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15920145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Natus Vincere65c289.25$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2572154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18fe…a4a0backed Natus Vincere69c288.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.656450%32 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Pipsqueak+456c285.71$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+438c276.39$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.671,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Pipsqueak+433c258.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.441,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Natus Vincere37c253$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.395940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Natus Vincere57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.542053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+443c248.91$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10829240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked Pipsqueak+439c247$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3310541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.950053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pipsqueak+422c240.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0953139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Pipsqueak+432c216.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Pipsqueak+435c212$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.083148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Natus Vincere47c210.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.413459.7%80 W · 54 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Pipsqueak+448c208.83$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2545352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere59c201.92$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.172,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Natus Vincere61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7812832%41 W · 87 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Pipsqueak+454c185.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046149.7%229 W · 232 L+1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8637…0c86backed Natus Vincere56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.573638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Pipsqueak+434c176.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Natus Vincere52c173.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.26845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Pipsqueak+431c169.06$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5213246.2%61 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Pipsqueak+440c168.47$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3941055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe416…7fc0backed Natus Vincere59c166.47$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.471747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere52c166.17$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.391,46148.5%709 W · 752 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere60c163.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.351,70741.2%704 W · 1,003 L-43.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Pipsqueak+432c157$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2427737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Natus Vincere66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5286451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere60c149.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.191,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x741a…ea3ebacked Natus Vincere66c148.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.485448.1%26 W · 28 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere68c141.29$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2157455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Natus Vincere51c137.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554848.5%266 W · 282 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Pipsqueak+437c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Pipsqueak+413c133$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2913129.8%39 W · 92 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Pipsqueak+413c133$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2924527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere53c131.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.971,26349.6%627 W · 636 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Pipsqueak+445c130.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.891,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Pipsqueak+437c128.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6347951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Natus Vincere60c120.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1713645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Pipsqueak+440c120$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4825547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Natus Vincere66c116$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4429466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed Natus Vincere59c114.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.873339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Natus Vincere66c111.49$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4973554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Natus Vincere35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6526154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Pipsqueak+422c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2272637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+412c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1279343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb009…7a8ebacked Pipsqueak+448c99.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.993345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Pipsqueak+461c98.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6053757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Natus Vincere66c95.72$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5411131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7d…a286backed Pipsqueak+440c87.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere57c84.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3354753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6b7…7518backed Pipsqueak+417c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.871010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed Natus Vincere62c74.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5731648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Natus Vincere68c74.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6938244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c8…c192backed Pipsqueak+437c73.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.088042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce1…49c7backed Natus Vincere72c72.55$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5512150.4%61 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Pipsqueak+444c61.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2415940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Natus Vincere61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.437851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c73…e6cebacked Pipsqueak+438c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203050%15 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Natus Vincere23c50.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.721333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.517636.9%65 W · 111 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.