Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6d0ccb70c0800a2bf3d8c8da6cee99fe6cbdd3c80f577a4980aacf32c5200e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 2,919$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.41 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 2,767$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.46 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 1,836$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.58 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 1,366$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.27 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,019$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.93 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 1,015$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.56 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Natus Vincere | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 997.61$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.5 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 948.37$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.4 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 897.75$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.48 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 878.65$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.36 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 828.97$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.15 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 755.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Natus Vincere | 8c | 724.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 716$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.4 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Natus Vincere | 7c | 703.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere | 7c | 640$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 592.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.65 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 551.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.76 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Natus Vincere | 12c | 540.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 502.83$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 27c | 491.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.25 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 454.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.96 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 447.67$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Natus Vincere | 17c | 431.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 373.76$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.91 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 334.88$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 309.32$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 300.83$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.61 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 293.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 250$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 249.64$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 134 | 59.7%80 W · 54 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…3841backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 248.69$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 234.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 226.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 219.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 215.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 213.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 188.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…2d93backed Pipsqueak+4 | 21c | 178.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 174.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347d…098abacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 172.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…a4a0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 132.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 131.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 125.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 111.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…2443backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 109.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 106.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a5…309ebacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 102.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 101.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…8c91backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 100.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 97.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 96.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…ee29backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 88.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 86.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 85.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 64.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 59.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 56.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 52.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 50.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…b429backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 47.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 44.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 43.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 42.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…baa3backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 27.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 22.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 15.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.