TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d24…20b3backed Pipsqueak+436c2,919$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.4154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Pipsqueak+433c2,767$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.461,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Natus Vincere2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45350%0 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Natus Vincere2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458035%28 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Natus Vincere2c1,875$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere61c1,836$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.5879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere68c1,366$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.2779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Natus Vincere2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Natus Vincere2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012217.2%21 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Natus Vincere2c1,102$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.275318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked Natus Vincere74c1,019$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.9312764.6%82 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere77c1,015$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.5653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Natus Vincere1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Natus Vincere58c997.61$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Natus Vincere74c948.37$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.448057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere67c897.75$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.4886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Pipsqueak+441c878.65$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.3645352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Pipsqueak+458c828.97$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.156141%25 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Natus Vincere13c755.88$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.865337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Natus Vincere8c724.69$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8613129.8%39 W · 92 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Pipsqueak+435c716$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.45740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Natus Vincere7c703.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.169033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere7c640$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4417636.9%65 W · 111 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+435c592.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.651,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere26c551.61$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Natus Vincere12c540.56$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2328336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Pipsqueak+480c502.83$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.838944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Pipsqueak+427c491.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.2514157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a40…f518backed Pipsqueak+430c454.96$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9615437%57 W · 97 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Natus Vincere49c447.67$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7854058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Natus Vincere17c431.65$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0421558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Natus Vincere4c375$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7524527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Pipsqueak+436c373.76$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9156848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+438c334.88$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.8829240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Natus Vincere67c309.32$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Natus Vincere74c300.83$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6131865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+455c293.96$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Natus Vincere64c250$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.614259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Pipsqueak+412c250$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22021333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Natus Vincere71c249.64$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17813459.7%80 W · 54 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Natus Vincere63c248.69$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3420939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Pipsqueak+433c234.84$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.548053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere59c226.45$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6853139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere61c219.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.191,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Pipsqueak+436c215.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9914030.7%43 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Pipsqueak+433c213.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6457735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+453c188.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0472154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Pipsqueak+442c178.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5748539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f90…2d93backed Pipsqueak+421c178.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.692050%10 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Pipsqueak+432c174.37$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5738244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x347d…098abacked Natus Vincere24c172.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.781942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-37.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18fe…a4a0backed Natus Vincere67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006450%32 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Pipsqueak+431c132.92$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.811,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Natus Vincere67c131.29$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8229466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed Pipsqueak+425c125.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7724041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere47c111.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.681,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed Pipsqueak+441c109.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.363339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed Pipsqueak+438c106.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3113144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a5…309ebacked Natus Vincere10c102.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Natus Vincere29c101.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4628846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52c9…8c91backed Natus Vincere57c100.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+426c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7479343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Pipsqueak+480c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2092561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…0813backed Natus Vincere68c97.06$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666768.7%46 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere73c96.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.521,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcc…ee29backed Natus Vincere70c88.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6117451.7%90 W · 84 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Natus Vincere61c86.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6918661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed Natus Vincere75c85.03$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7716558.2%96 W · 69 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Natus Vincere69c80$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.264149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed Natus Vincere65c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230460.2%183 W · 121 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Natus Vincere20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere79c64.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5155561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed Pipsqueak+427c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.94346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere60c59.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.452,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7560…1ee1backed Natus Vincere18c56.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221133.6%71 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Pipsqueak+439c52.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1172637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Pipsqueak+420c50.96$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.918851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…b429backed Natus Vincere65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Natus Vincere34c47.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1233854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Pipsqueak+432c44.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.074247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere68c43.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed Pipsqueak+435c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8628252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Natus Vincere53c42.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5837851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed Natus Vincere50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f75…ce35backed Natus Vincere72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Natus Vincere51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Pipsqueak+441c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Pipsqueak+447c34.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0421344.1%94 W · 119 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Natus Vincere58c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6942660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Natus Vincere51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f4…77a2backed Natus Vincere47c27.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.197850%39 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e38…b4cbbacked Pipsqueak+442c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.923762.2%23 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Natus Vincere75c22.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1791356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76a…47c0backed Natus Vincere72c15.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed Natus Vincere70c14.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3111858.5%69 W · 49 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.