TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Misa Esportsof Misa Esports, Team Liquid Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$117,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid Academy46c3,696$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.9594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Misa Esports52c3,137$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.6534356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Liquid Academy47c2,424$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.1878562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Liquid Academy54c2,106$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.4540945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Misa Esports53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.8554751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid Academy47c1,625$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.211,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Liquid Academy47c1,625$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.2441734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Misa Esports67c1,579$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.756551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid Academy50c1,268$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.581,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Team Liquid Academy30c1,213$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.2232245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Team Liquid Academy47c1,171$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.5711450%57 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Liquid Academy29c1,148$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.291,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Misa Esports49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.210842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Liquid Academy42c990.74$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.7784838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid Academy47c908.3$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9168949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Misa Esports57c907.56$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.2535142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Misa Esports49c891.5$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.174642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Misa Esports57c889.43$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.099371%66 W · 27 L+15.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+27.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked Misa Esports45c879.95$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.251952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed Misa Esports55c879.64$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.642653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Team Liquid Academy46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32214032.9%46 W · 94 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Misa Esports65c597.65$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0714653.4%78 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Liquid Academy41c568.1$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3928743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaeb…92f6backed Team Liquid Academy46c563.01$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.683834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6712…a95bbacked Misa Esports55c540.75$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.752352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Liquid Academy46c525.62$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3796245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9bd…3dd4backed Team Liquid Academy26c515.53$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Team Liquid Academy48c512.5$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24618641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Team Liquid Academy43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid Academy59c500$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4779650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team Liquid Academy59c499.98$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5952050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…528ebacked Misa Esports56c494.64$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.451040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Misa Esports42c483.31$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.5714552.4%76 W · 69 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid Academy52c481.91$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4930147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Liquid Academy59c455$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8255348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe544…c7afbacked Team Liquid Academy41c449.47$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.933644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Misa Esports37c436.95$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6742140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Team Liquid Academy58c436.51$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.222344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Liquid Academy33c426.91$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf7…9907backed Team Liquid Academy38c404.65$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.923928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Misa Esports61c397$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3999846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Misa Esports51c381.89$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1286747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Misa Esports36c377.59$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.8723644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Misa Esports54c377.14$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.484269%29 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Liquid Academy54c370.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.691,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Misa Esports57c356.57$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.821,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Liquid Academy34c331.27$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2877744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Misa Esports56c330.07$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3316547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Misa Esports61c329.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.363056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Team Liquid Academy42c326$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.515334.6%53 W · 100 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Team Liquid Academy40c319.4$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7628252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Team Liquid Academy43c317$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6215833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid Academy47c306$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.681134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x156b…c533backed Misa Esports63c300.25$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.095768.4%39 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Misa Esports79c299$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.554856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Team Liquid Academy45c294.33$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.456454.7%35 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Misa Esports32c288$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.8418647.8%89 W · 97 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x753b…5484backed Misa Esports62c277.79$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.891258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Liquid Academy43c273.36$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2777929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Misa Esports63c270$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9114750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba23…cd7ebacked Misa Esports59c260$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Misa Esports52c260$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1116033.8%54 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Team Liquid Academy39c258.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed Team Liquid Academy43c258.14$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-51.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Team Liquid Academy43c255.23$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1097855.1%43 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Misa Esports35c251.94$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.2270043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Liquid Academy45c250.2$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3690733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Misa Esports39c250.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.8133838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50f7…903abacked Misa Esports56c249.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Liquid Academy48c245.46$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5954439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Team Liquid Academy41c243.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005836.2%21 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Misa Esports36c243.73$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.546347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Team Liquid Academy41c238.09$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.628744.8%39 W · 48 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Team Liquid Academy48c230.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.42245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Misa Esports57c230.16$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4934954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9e…2c7fbacked Team Liquid Academy46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Team Liquid Academy32c213.13$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Misa Esports60c210.47$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.191384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid Academy58c208.62$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9517654.5%96 W · 80 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Misa Esports68c207.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.393049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4781…f6c5backed Misa Esports57c203.1$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.13762.2%23 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Liquid Academy19c202$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1966438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Liquid Academy40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7934443.3%149 W · 195 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Misa Esports55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Misa Esports54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.543059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Misa Esports57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.85352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Misa Esports47c197.35$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7640944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Misa Esports29c192.17$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4454342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68da…37b5backed Team Liquid Academy48c185.15$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Misa Esports61c180.08$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4418460.9%112 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Misa Esports34c175.26$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3523847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Team Liquid Academy45c173.92$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.076747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed Misa Esports78c173.87$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.251566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa322…3064backed Misa Esports29c171.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2167…fa33backed Misa Esports59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.494860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Team Liquid Academy47c169.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.668145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f84…98f1backed Misa Esports60c167.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.115358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Team Liquid Academy52c162.72$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.344358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Misa Esports55c152.58$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6618457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Team Liquid Academy39c149.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.216950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.