Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e5e07d3fe3e9e86fd0d31bc1993de56c99b1a86026a830d27feea9da9b64e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 50c | 1,661$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.22 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,355$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 591.44$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 405$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.85 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 389$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 296$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 58c | 292.73$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 245.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 64c | 223.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 214$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 184.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 179.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 174$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 60c | 168.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 56c | 159.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 144.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 143.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 140.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 50c | 137.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 133.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 41c | 122.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 49c | 121.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 72c | 101$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 89.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 82.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 25c | 68.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 66.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 50c | 62.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 49c | 61.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 43c | 57.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 57.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 52.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 41c | 48.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 61c | 46.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 44.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 44.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 37c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 33.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 56c | 30.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 30.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 52c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 39c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 44c | 25.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 47c | 21.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…4d23backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 61c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.