Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d0173a88498e1942c010d152b38dfe249df715ba7d90cb26ad9bb69c2cba6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,933$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 4c | 1,270$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.83 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 13c | 802.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 20c | 650.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 3c | 475$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 24c | 397.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 27c | 328.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 314.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 294.53$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 271.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 260.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 11c | 260$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…1e8fbacked Yes | 20c | 255.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 216.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 200.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 17c | 195.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 188.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 74c | 188.6$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…af3cbacked Yes | 27c | 185.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 179.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 178.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked Yes | 24c | 171.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 161.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 26c | 150.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 80c | 122.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 15c | 117.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 16c | 116.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 114.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 20c | 114.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…6e0abacked Yes | 17c | 112.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 28c | 107.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 19c | 106.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 22c | 101.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…2d9dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 95.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 93.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 92.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9011…8330backed Yes | 29c | 90.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 90.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 84.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 21c | 72.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…f743backed Yes | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked No | 74c | 67.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…2174backed Yes | 21c | 67.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 29c | 66.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked Yes | 21c | 65.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed Yes | 25c | 58.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…45f1backed Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 73c | 57.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 77c | 51.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 41.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…8a01backed No | 74c | 38.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed No | 73c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…163dbacked No | 76c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 12.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.