Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091d137694061741144097d83e43f740000447e2fcecfdd2cd819dba7650f0f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5772…110ebacked No | 0c | 12,235$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 33c | 1,572$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.98 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,203$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 79c | 916.71$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 20c | 890.46$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 19c | 869.07$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.32 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 80c | 778.5$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 39c | 710.05$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.6 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…a203backed No | 16c | 699.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed No | 20c | 554.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 80c | 541.8$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 19c | 537.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 75c | 530$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 492.37$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 70c | 482.11$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 71c | 464.28$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked No | 43c | 402.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 369.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 24c | 361.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 25c | 332.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 31c | 324.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 314.91$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked No | 22c | 311.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 19c | 275.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 69c | 264.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 10c | 259.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 72c | 259.58$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 20c | 227.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed No | 20c | 227.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 15c | 216.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 19c | 211.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 67c | 208.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 66c | 200.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…2d9dbacked No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 19c | 199.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 62c | 197.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 8c | 162.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 66c | 156.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed No | 23c | 155.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 21c | 148.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 31c | 140.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 71c | 140.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 76c | 140.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 65c | 137.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 18c | 111.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…4623backed Yes | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 28c | 108.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3aa…3d9cbacked No | 18c | 104.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 28c | 103.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked No | 28c | 100.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 30c | 100.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 99.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…5293backed No | 26c | 95.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 17c | 90.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 89.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 87.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 83.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 80c | 77.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 15c | 73.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 75c | 67.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 23c | 67.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 78c | 64.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…cd63backed Yes | 80c | 62.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 68c | 57.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…6947backed Yes | 63c | 54.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…5837backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 51.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 76c | 50.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…45f1backed Yes | 79c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 28c | 49.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…7421backed No | 26c | 47.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 78c | 46.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 44.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…edb0backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 74c | 37.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 68c | 36.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 79c | 33.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 61c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.