Olympics · resolved market
Women's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58759db097b105423c3283f327773fc944901a1e5c5449f4407053708550b1d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof Finland, Switzerland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Finland | 78c | 4,573$3,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,557.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Switzerland | 22c | 2,080$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Switzerland | 23c | 1,820$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Finland | 78c | 1,702$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.34 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Switzerland | 30c | 1,559$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.05 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Switzerland | 22c | 1,550$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Switzerland | 23c | 1,084$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.34 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe779…335ebacked Finland | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Switzerland | 79c | 986.87$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed Finland | 40c | 920.02$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Switzerland | 21c | 839.13$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.89 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Finland | 78c | 771.64$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Finland | 77c | 699.99$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Switzerland | 26c | 668.82$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Switzerland | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Finland | 77c | 650$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Switzerland | 21c | 580.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Switzerland | 79c | 366.15$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Finland | 76c | 328.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Finland | 69c | 297.85$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Switzerland | 25c | 296$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Switzerland | 27c | 272.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Finland | 79c | 250$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Switzerland | 27c | 227$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.63 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347e…4fd6backed Finland | 78c | 214.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Finland | 74c | 213.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Switzerland | 26c | 208$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…094abacked Switzerland | 24c | 205.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…a283backed Finland | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Finland | 39c | 205.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…39c7backed Switzerland | 22c | 170.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Finland | 76c | 157.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Switzerland | 26c | 148.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked Finland | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Switzerland | 70c | 135$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Finland | 76c | 129.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…8c89backed Switzerland | 63c | 112$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…c3bfbacked Finland | 45c | 110.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Finland | 77c | 108$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Finland | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Switzerland | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Switzerland | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Switzerland | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked Finland | 74c | 90.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Switzerland | 38c | 87.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Switzerland | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Finland | 32c | 79.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Switzerland | 23c | 72.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Switzerland | 23c | 66.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d3e1backed Switzerland | 27c | 64.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…61cabacked Finland | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Switzerland | 26c | 63.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +280%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed Finland | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Finland | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Switzerland | 24c | 55.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Switzerland | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Finland | 51c | 49.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…bbd7backed Finland | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…2d23backed Switzerland | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Finland | 79c | 37.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Finland | 74c | 33.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Switzerland | 75c | 32.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Finland | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c2…e2d9backed Finland | 72c | 27.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Finland | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Finland | 75c | 26.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…9de9backed Finland | 73c | 25.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Finland | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…ffdfbacked Finland | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Finland | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…0f2abacked Finland | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.