Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58afe85f1f776d33bca1d6d2b3439cde9e79092800890a56c9103248e0c8d62d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 7,842$5,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,632.89 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 28c | 3,136$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.88 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 28c | 2,463$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.05 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 1,118$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.51 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 143 | 54.5%78 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 170 | 62.4%106 W · 64 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Over | 23c | 363$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.12 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +269.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 28c | 312$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 227.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.84 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 72c | 172$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 104.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 51c | 97.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 68c | 82.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 81.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 72c | 55.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 71c | 50.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 29c | 49.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 30c | 47.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 125 | 54.4%68 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 50c | 41.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 40.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 146 | 58.2%85 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 29c | 38.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 72c | 36.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 72c | 29.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 70c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 72c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 73c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.