Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d3886f74f7978a2d46356b5ffb1af07e465dc0cc0f7fa1c8e023dc41c0f320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 6,048$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 36c | 1,068$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.73 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 53c | 558.45$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.81 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 37c | 226.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 164.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 162.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 39c | 128.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 122.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 110.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 109.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 105.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 91.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 89.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 87.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 83.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 79.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 48c | 77.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…cd97backed No | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 68.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 45c | 64.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 36c | 63.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 41c | 60.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 56.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 47c | 53.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 48.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 55c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 50c | 42.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 41.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 55c | 39.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 32c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 50c | 26.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 45c | 26.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 54c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 57c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 57c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 24.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 24.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 64c | 24.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 51c | 24.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 46c | 23.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 52c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 48c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 54c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 57c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.