Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x595d56b8b01b864119a7d57d76536b1d7ac5731f51694765ae48228b7639e757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 44c | 4,800$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 51c | 1,523$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.26 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66f…104cbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Under | 66c | 847.87$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Over | 56c | 738.36$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.88 | 192 | 50%96 W · 96 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 7c | 601.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.68 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 60c | 529.53$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 57c | 370.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 263.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 12c | 248.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.2 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Over | 21c | 238.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 234$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 34c | 204.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 586 | 42.8%251 W · 335 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 38c | 193.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 164.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 34c | 131$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 42c | 118.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed Over | 60c | 112.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 128 | 71.9%92 W · 36 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Under | 38c | 103.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 21c | 96.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 41c | 91.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…a9efbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 114 | 22.8%26 W · 88 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37d…a88bbacked Over | 60c | 81.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 275 | 54.5%150 W · 125 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…bf19backed Over | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 107 | 69.2%74 W · 33 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed Over | 55c | 63.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce75backed Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 59.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 40c | 50.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Under | 39c | 38.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 37c | 31.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 38c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…fecbbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 26.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Cornersthis page
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersOver won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 CornersOver won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total CornersOver won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total CornersOver won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total CornersOver won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First CornerNetherlands won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Total Corners Odd or Even?Odd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.