TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karl Polingof Henry Searle, Karl Poling
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Henry Searle78c9,404$7,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,365.486,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Karl Poling15c5,186$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,392.151,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba55…41f1backed Karl Poling38c4,715$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,941.115743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Karl Poling57c3,509$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.624,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Karl Poling42c3,379$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.678,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Henry Searle56c2,360$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.248,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…8730backed Karl Poling43c2,048$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.6224631.3%77 W · 169 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Karl Poling48c1,952$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.2333037.3%123 W · 207 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdae…39ebbacked Karl Poling72c1,506$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4234259.5%25 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Henry Searle69c1,285$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.832,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Karl Poling40c1,184$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.49760.8%59 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9360…67f0backed Henry Searle74c1,148$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.5211249.1%55 W · 57 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Henry Searle61c1,096$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.143,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karl Poling33c1,062$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.957,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Henry Searle79c1,012$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.171,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Henry Searle53c999.73$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.799,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Henry Searle51c980.13$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.092,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Karl Poling37c959.58$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.5843334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Henry Searle60c812.63$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.4671725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Henry Searle78c718.03$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.0616552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Henry Searle77c715.28$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.524,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Karl Poling19c704.96$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.961,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Henry Searle61c651.02$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.683,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Henry Searle44c627.01$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.485449.6%424 W · 430 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Karl Poling17c623.53$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.5348331.1%150 W · 333 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Karl Poling38c618.26$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.616,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Henry Searle60c604.2$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.0225544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Henry Searle76c545.04$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.742,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Karl Poling46c534.57$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.198,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Henry Searle78c502.96$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.541,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Henry Searle63c500$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.24,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Henry Searle47c489.08$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.442,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Karl Poling50c471.34$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7750442.7%215 W · 289 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Henry Searle34c444.59$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Karl Poling47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.531,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Henry Searle55c389.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.539035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x7dbd…e1e3backed Henry Searle64c359.28$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2827446.7%128 W · 146 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Karl Poling14c336.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.565,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Henry Searle47c336.08$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.436,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Karl Poling38c330.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.911338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Karl Poling58c320.31$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5333751.9%175 W · 162 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Karl Poling22c314.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.2426134.1%89 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa1…2242backed Henry Searle65c309.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006251.6%32 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Karl Poling39c308.49$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.185248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Karl Poling35c302.14$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5690335.8%323 W · 580 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Karl Poling36c295.18$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18910232.4%33 W · 69 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Henry Searle33c290$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.779052.9%418 W · 372 L+24.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Karl Poling34c285.87$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9635730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Karl Poling21c260.95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.341,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Henry Searle41c258.96$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.023321.2%7 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-37.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Karl Poling18c248.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.133346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Karl Poling23c246.27$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Henry Searle33c233.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.375,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Karl Poling23c232.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.031,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Karl Poling45c228.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.891,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Henry Searle36c227.23$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.689663.7%571 W · 325 L+63.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Henry Searle79c224$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.961,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Karl Poling48c223.33$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2911162.2%69 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Henry Searle58c217.22$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.991,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Karl Poling19c211.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.442,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda45…a2c6backed Henry Searle51c199.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.994850%24 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Karl Poling58c199.46$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.844,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Henry Searle61c196.87$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0592138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…dd7dbacked Karl Poling41c193.81$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.717963.3%50 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Henry Searle53c193.27$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.52,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Henry Searle20c192$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.454,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Karl Poling38c176.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7224856.9%141 W · 107 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Henry Searle19c170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.944949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Karl Poling26c159.7$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.171,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…5d44backed Karl Poling23c157.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.885514.5%8 W · 47 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-55.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22c7…d814backed Karl Poling25c157.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4240554.1%219 W · 186 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Karl Poling22c156.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3259954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Karl Poling35c148.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.711,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Karl Poling27c147.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1164537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…d6a5backed Karl Poling29c146.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.351952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Karl Poling50c144.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1345850.7%232 W · 226 L-1.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Karl Poling37c141.65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.32,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc08c…4b12backed Henry Searle11c137.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157847.4%37 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Karl Poling15c134$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.92,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b1…ca10backed Karl Poling50c133.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9215544.5%69 W · 86 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Karl Poling53c132.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9966834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4bc…b19dbacked Henry Searle75c130.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Karl Poling48c129.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.646040%184 W · 276 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e4…68bebacked Karl Poling23c128.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6613636.8%50 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Henry Searle39c128.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Henry Searle60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x831f…cc50backed Karl Poling20c118.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1521841.3%90 W · 128 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c5…17e8backed Karl Poling20c109.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.569638.5%37 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Henry Searle55c109.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6079646%366 W · 430 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Henry Searle54c102.76$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Karl Poling24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.81,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Karl Poling15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8524945.4%113 W · 136 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Karl Poling42c95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.641,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8a…4a02backed Henry Searle79c89.61$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.79425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Henry Searle58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037238.2%142 W · 230 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Henry Searle13c82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7243618.3%80 W · 356 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Karl Poling20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6013033.8%44 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Karl Poling60c71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.052,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Henry Searle78c70.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5544051.6%227 W · 213 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Karl Poling23c70.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.