CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a17e711f8876b66f520df7a36db9d75ad557d4e9784a94dc7ccb17a9f91ddff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Spirit, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 272.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a4…7e3bbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…07aebacked Spirit | 41c | 136.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Spirit | 40c | 125.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…f256backed Team Falcons | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Spirit | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Spirit | 43c | 86.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…a4cebacked Spirit | 43c | 86.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…d0babacked Team Falcons | 67c | 75.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c65…6124backed Spirit | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Spirit | 41c | 69.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Spirit | 41c | 65.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Spirit | 42c | 59.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Spirit | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 306 | 39.5%121 W · 185 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…8c49backed Team Falcons | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.